Sunday, April 22, 2007
Welcome to the Dungeon
My house contains two functioning computers that I have regular access to. Unfortunately, I can only sign in to my Blogger account on one of them, to which my access is sharply limited. The other computer is the Dungeon Computer, so called because of its location in a small, windowless, semi-claustrophobic room, the only natural light coming down through a narrow oubliette-like skylight. This computer does, however permit me to post comments, so I have created this page, and more importantly the comments section of this post, as a place where I can update my site while cast by circumstance into the Dungeon. Feel free to comment as normal.
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Taliban chief Dadullah 'surrounded'
Mullah Dadullah, the Taliban's military commander in southern Afghanistan, is reported to have been surrounded by Afghan troops, sources have told Al Jazeera.
About 200 Taliban are believed to be with Dadullah, one of Nato's most-wanted men, in the province of Uruzgan, a senior official in the Afghan intelligence service said. [More]
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Booyah.
This is very good news (if true). Unlike Helmand province, Uruzgan is comparatively small, so having it surrounded actually means something. Dadullah's capture would not only toss the Taliban top brass into turmoil for a bit, it would also yield all sorts of nifty information about troop strengths and supply routes and those infamous subterranean strongholds ("Where is the Rebel base?"). UAV reconnaissance flights should be able to confirm or refute the information he provides, so hopefully the interrogators won't feel the need to go overboard. If he dies instead of being captured, it'll still be a major victory over the Taliban, and, depending on how much of the battlefield is left intact, he'll probably have all sorts of fascinating documents with him.
If, of course, he's in Uruzgan.
TALIBAN LEADER SAYS BIN LADEN ALIVE
Mullah Dadullah, a senior Taliban commander, has told Al Jazeera in an exclusive interview that Osama Bin Laden, al-Qaeda's leader, is alive.
Dadullah said Bin Laden planned and supervised the "suicide" operation which targeted Dick Cheney, the US vice-president, in Bargam air force base during his visit to Afghanistan in February.
[More]
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The Saudis had been indicating that he had died of typhoid.
This "press conference" is very, very interesting, and I think it's clear that the Taliban wanted to send a strong message. The choice of Mullah Dadullah as spokesman is conspicuous in light of the Afghan Army's claim to be closing in on him. Also interesting is the Mullah's choice of words when he said, "Thank God, he is alive, we get updated information about it." Updates about what? Does Osama periodically send off shout-outs to remind his supporters that he still exists? Does he perhaps actually have typhoid, and the updates are regarding his health? Either way, it means that there is some sort of regular communications line connecting Osama with the outside word. Managing to intercept one of these communiqués could result in Osama's discovery.
The most interesting thing about this interview, however, is Dadullah's claim that Osama planned the Bagram attack in detail. The general consensus is that as Cheney's visit to Bagram was so impromptu, the suicide strike was a coincidence. Why would Osama have been personally involved in such a routine attack? And perhaps more to the point, why wait two months to say so? What do they think they are accomplishing by lying?
Also significant was the guided tour the Taliban gave Al Jazeera. They obviously took huge strategic risks in doing so, so they must have had a compelling reason. I suspect that the Taliban is slowly starting to realize that the Afghanis are getting pretty pissed off at them, and that they are beginning a media campaign to turn there image around.
I am currently reading a very fascinating book called The Management of Savagery, by the Apostate Abu Bakr Nasri (trans. William McCants, Boston, Harvard University: 2006). Savagery is something of a long-term, global battle plan setting forth how al-Qaeda intends to wage its side of the War on Terror. One passage in particular provides great insight into al-Qaeda's confusing administrative structure. Nasri has been discussing "qualitative operations" (i.e. terrorist attacks), and then says this:
"I do not mean qualitative operations like the operation of September. Thinking too much about doing something like the latter might impede the undertaking of qualitative operations that are smaller in size. Likewise, if there is an opportunity for doing something like it, it is better not to do so in haste without knowing the opinion of the High Command, besides the fact that (such an operation) often requires capabilities, support, and the covering (of expenses) which often cannot be obtained except from the High Command. Meanwhile, operations like Bali, al-Muhaya [Riyadh], and the like do not require consultation with the High Command since (this sort of operation) has already been approved in advance and its rate can be slowed with diffusion and with the small, intensive operations that we mentioned in the previous point."
Interesting.
Afghans protest against US killings
Hundreds of Afghans have held a third day of protests against the killing of civilians by US-led coalition forces, burning an effigy of George Bush, the US president, and chanting anti-US slogans. [More]
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This is not a happy article. Among the highlights:
" ...the Taliban movement on Tuesday said they had seized control of the Rabat Singi district in Herat province. The Afghan government is reported to have sent a delegation to convince the Taliban to relinquish command of the district without intervention by foreign troops or fighting."
"'The real worry about the Afghan government is that every time a civilian dies in a bombing raid, people in the area are likely to lose support for the government and start supporting the Taliban.'"
"Another student chanted 'We do not want American forces. They should go. Death to America,' before the protest ended peacefully under a tight police watch."
"A powerful tribe in the province, the Shinwar, on Monday vowed not to allow US-led forces and foreign troops under a separate Nato command into their district to hunt the Taliban."
"In Herat, protests erupted over the weekend after US officials said more than 130 Taliban had been killed in several days of ground and air attacks. Provincial authorities rejected the coalition figure of Taliban deaths and dispatched a team to investigate. 'We have learnt from various sources ... that 30 civilians are among those killed,' police chief Fazli told reporters in Herat city."
"Scores of civilians have died, most due to suicide bombings and other attacks by the Taliban, but a significant number also due to action by foreign forces. More than 4,000 people, including 1,000 civilians, died last year in the worst fighting since the Taliban were ousted in 2001."
I'm not sure how exactly we're supposed to win this war when we keep killing the general populace. I realize that a certain number of civilian casualties are unavoidable, but this is too many. Every precaution must be taken to avoid them. The Pentagon needs to step up research into non-lethal weaponry, and to deploy the results of that research.
It also needs to reexamine its priorities. While our goal is to defeat the Taliban and al-Qaeda, it cannot be accomplished solely through battle. So what if the Taliban occupy a position? if dislodging them would do more harm than good, let them have their ten square yards of dirt. This war is not about the land of Afghanistan — we already have that — but about the Afghan people. Only they can decide the victor.
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